Analyze the Analysts Part 1

I was going through the manuscript of the book I wrote last year when I came across this section which I wrote on  how to analyze an analyst. These analysis were done at the start of 2013 and it is so very interesting to see how far off these predictions can get. Now that it is 2014 and we now know the verdict, let's review what these experts said about 2013. Feel free to make your comments on the Facebook or on the blog.

Long-Term Bull Turns Bearish for 2013

By:Bruno J. Navarro | Online Producer 

CNBC.com | Thursday, 13 Dec 2012 

Positive market catalysts have run out of steam for next year, Marc Chaikin of Chaikin Analytics said Thursday.

On "Fast Money," the former bull turned bearish: "The three things that drove the market were the presidential cycle in 2012, the fact that our markets were undervalued relative to Europe and Apple, driving our whole consumer-technology complex," he said. "And all of three of those are going to be missing in '13. Factor in the 'fiscal cliff,' and there's a lot of uncertainty going forward."

Chaikin wasn't looking for the Federal Reserve to a fix, either.

"In March of 2013, the bull market'll be four years old. That's pretty long in the tooth," he said. "We all know the liquidity factor from the Fed and boosting asset prices, but that's yesterday's news.

"I think it's a great time to play defense."

Chaikin saw stronger headwinds for high-end retailers such as Coach and Tiffany, citing consumers' economic concerns.

One stock bucked his bearish outlook: Yahoo.

"The key here is that they're hiring engineers," he said, adding that positive sentiment on the Street — Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $24 — was not to be ignored. 

"I would actually buy it under $19," he said. "I wouldn't exit the trade if I was an investor. We're talking about investments here; $24 is not going to happen overnight."

Chaikin also praised new CEO Marissa Meyer. 

"In four and a half months, she's turned around the psychology at Yahoo," he said.

© 2013 CNBC.com

 The US Stock Market had one of the best returns not seen in a decade, so he is pretty way off the mark saying that the bull has run out of steam. He is right about Yahoo though, but he is saying that $24 for Yahoo will be a difficult target to reach. Yahoo share prices it $24 by April and is currently trading at $40.