16 March 2006

Politics and the Stock Market

A sudden surge in Asian political uncertainty has led to much volatility in the Markets

Politics and the Market
There has been a widespread of strikes, coups and political maneuvering that left the markets jittery.

In Taiwan, President Chen Shui Bian is trying to promote a Pro-Independence stance to boost his failing popularity and abolished the Unification Council in Taiwan. Apparently, the market doesn't agree with his decision. The Taiwan bourse fell by 2% for the month of Feb

In Philippines, a plot to overthrow president Arroyo failed and a state of emergency has been declared. The market fell over 1% for the month of Feb.

In Thailand, Mr Thaksin dissolved the parliament and called for a snap election to quell any dissents regarding his right to govern. The Thai Market is up 1%.

A failed bombing attempts of an oil facility at Abqaiq has lead to oil prices to be back above $60.

There is an interesting observation to be made here. Despite of all the market shocks, the market remind resilient, especially that of the Thai market. We are truly in a favorable economic situation now. However, the risks and uncertainties are still as frequent as ever. We have never anticipated events in Thailand and Philippines. However, throughout the years, we have came to understand how market shocks affect the markets and is able to independently assess whether the impact is huge enough to cause an impact on the markets. A good example is that of Thailand. After the event occurred, we seek the opinion of those who are familiar with the Thai economy and we are assured of a favorable results. Our judgment was sound by asking our clients to enter the Thai market despite the uncertainty.

In the world of investing, opportunities occur when there are market shocks. We should not fear it excessively, nor should we ignore their threats. The key is the ability to differentiate opportunities from real threats. This is the art of investing.

The market still looks good and a strong run is still expected. Bonds should be recovering soon. Stay invested.

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